How big will 2008 be? Big enough to see a few presumed safe Republican districts painted blue in November? Anything’s possible.
A Goodwin Simon Victoria Research poll (5/19-22, likely voters) of Minnesota’s 2nd CD suggests that this R+2.7 district is turning a bluer shade of pale. From the polling memo:
It has become very clear in this election cycle that many Congressional seats formerly considered “Republican” seats are now in play; very little is safe for the GOP at present. Our recent poll results indicate that Minnesota’s 2nd Congressional District has officially reached the tipping point, as the generic ballot between any “Democrat” and a “Republican” for Congress starts out as tied, 40% to 40%, for the first time in this district’s history. Add to this Sarvi’s compelling personal narrative and moderate inclinations, and Democrats have a real chance to take this district in November.
A few other numbers: 76% of voters rate Bush’s job performance negatively, while Kline’s approval rating is at a fairly poor 39%/44%. With no head-to-heads released, we can safely assume that Kline leads at this early stage. However, after hearing a positive statement about the Democratic candidate, Steve Sarvi, Sarvi pulls ahead by 49%-37%.
Now, it takes a lot of money to educate voters, but Sarvi has a compelling profile as a small town mayor and Iraq veteran. If he can get his message out there, perhaps he can do what Coleen Rowley failed to manage in 2006.
One never knows this year.
I can’t see us winning there unless it’s a 30+ seat landslide in the House. Sarvi does seem to be a much better candidate than Rowley. Obama should help us a bit in all MN districts this year.
yay! I hate that they dont provide just a simply Kline vs Sarvi vote prior to hearing positive statements to the more unknown candidate.
Great news. I wish they would tell us where we are at with simply Sarvi vs Kline.
This is a very winnable district and Crisitunity has showed that Kline is more out of step with his district then ANYONE ELSE IN AMERICA!
Let’s win this thing!
…..but foreclosure-mania has hit exurban Minnesota like a sledgehammer, and even the Pawlenty/Coleman coalition seems to be softening in its GOP allegiance in strongholds like MN-02. Carver County is an impenetrable black hole of 63+% GOP worship no matter what, but Scott County next door went for Amy Klobuchar in 2006, and could conceivably be open to that “right kind of Democrat”. If Sarvi can break even in Scott County, he can win, given that the rest of the district is more favorable to Dems. I’d give him no better than 5% odds, but Kline has given these voters precious little reason to keep him around.